2. Nevada and Iowa were also important states in 2012, where President Obama gained enough small Swing State votes to lessen the importance of bigger swing states like Florida and Ohio. The number of electors each state gets is based on population. Swing states aren't just those that are closely divided politically, but those whose citizens can be persuaded to change who they vote for. ", 3. The high-stakes game of winning over swing states means candidates spend 75 percent or more of their campaign budget on courting them. In American politics, the term swing state (or battleground state) refers to any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate by a swing in votes. With a clean slate in June 2016, the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates have already started targeting some battleground states. Mr Obama never came close, and President Trump won it by a comfortable six percentage points in 2016. And in 2000, the results of the election came down to who won Florida, which George W. Bush claimed by a margin of just 537 votes. “No Republican has won the presidency unless they’ve won Ohio,” says Schultz. The candidate who has won Florida has become president at every election since 1992. The Founding Fathers were divided on how to pick a president. Potential 2020 battleground states in the presidential election between Joe Biden and Donald J. Trump include Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It was given this name due to the ruddy silt that this river obtains from the surrounding mountains. “The Voting Rights Act has had a huge impact on enfranchising African Americans who couldn’t vote 50 years ago in places like Texas, North Carolina, and Georgia,” says Schultz. Since their alliances are largely seen as fixed, there’s not a lot of need to do heavy campaigning in those states. This includes Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. Experts don’t always agree on which states are swing states. The term swing state is used in two different ways. The states most often described as being up in the air or ones that could side with either a Republican or Democratic presidential candidate are: Texas is mentioned as a possible swing state in the 2020 presidential election. What we do know more clearly is that there has been about a 2.4-point swing nationwide toward Biden relative to Clinton’s 2016 showing and a similarly modest swing in many of the critical battleground states. Learn more. The two parties were separated by just one percentage point at the last election. Swing states and the Electoral College Remember, the US Presidency is not determined by a popular vote, rather what’s called the Electoral College. Non-Swing States. Florida. Swing states are also sometimes referred to as battleground states. The reason why swing states are so important is due to the electoral college system, through which Americans elects their president. FACT CHECK: We strive for accuracy and fairness. Large states, which have an electorate split relatively evenly between Democrats and Republicans, are called a Swing state. North Carolina and Florida are the two swing states most likely to report prompt results on election night, and as such will give an early indication of how both Mr Biden and President Trump are faring. Ideological Polarization: The Pew Research Center has found that the ideological divide between parties began to widen in the 2000s. Nebraska is among 17 states filing a ‘friend of the court’ brief in the federal lawsuit filed by Texas challenging the constitutionality of election changes made in four ‘swing’ states by executive decisions or judicial rulings in the months leading up to the … Moderate Politics: In a state with more moderate voters, the divide between Republicans and Democrats narrows, making it more difficult to determine political outcomes. © 2020 A&E Television Networks, LLC. By CHARLIE MAHTESIAN. Six states above all others have emerged as the top electoral prizes in the 2020 race for president. Swing states, also known as battleground states or purple states, are highly competitive states that have historically swung between voting for different parties in presidential elections. The party became known for supporting abolition and keeping the Union together. “The new swing states are in the upper Midwest,” said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist who worked on Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign. The two parties were separated by just one percentage point at the last election. Swing states and the Electoral College. Learn more. But four years later, President Obama lost the state to Mitt Romney. California and New York’s electoral votes can nearly always be counted on to go to the Democratic candidate. "Northern states vote for Lincoln. The city of Philadelphia. HISTORY reviews and updates its content regularly to ensure it is complete and accurate. Two states—Maine and Nebraska—use the congressional district method, meaning they allocate two electoral votes to the popular vote winner in the state and one electoral vote to the popular vote winner in each Congressional district. A swing state is a state that could potentially shift its preferences back and forth between the candidates of the two major political parties, the Republicans and the Democrats, in a U.S. Presidential Election. Hudak adds that as the country has evolved, the number and identity of swing states has evolved as well. They're called that because the vote there is not a given for Democrats or Republicans, each of which hold historical strongholds over other states and therefore expect to win their respective states in each election. Swing states, also known as battleground states or purple states, are highly competitive states that have historically swung between voting for different parties in presidential elections. In the voting world, the president is decided through representative votes by the states. Close presidential elections throughout American history have borne this out: Harry S. Truman defeated Thomas Dewey in 1948 by winning by less than one percent of the popular vote in then-swing states like Ohio, California, Indiana, Illinois and New York—a race so close that newspaper headlines mistakenly proclaimed Dewey the winner. But even modest shifts in a roughly evenly divided nation can be decisive. No Democrat has won Georgia since Mr Clinton in 1992. David Schultz, editor of Presidential Swing States: Why Only Ten Matter with Stacey Hunter Hecht, says swing states began to really emerge in the wake of the Civil War. There is a reason why swing states exist in the United States—the U.S. voting system is structured around states. Swing states have populations that are finely politically divided between Democrat and Republican. Election Update: Latest On Ballot Counting In Key Swing States Election officials across the U.S. continue counting ballots Friday. For this year’s US Presidential Election, here are a few swing states to watch out for: Arizona (11 EC) The state has been a Republican stronghold since 1952 apart from 1996 when Bill Clinton won the state. Election Day was Tuesday. How the US Electoral College System Works, Why Puerto Rico Matters in the US Presidential Election, Presidents Elected Without Winning the Popular Vote, Importance of the US Presidential Primaries, Landslide Victory: Definition in Elections. The six are Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Because 38 out of the 50 states have voted for the same party since the 2000 presidential election, it’s relatively easy to predict which states will vote for a Democratic candidate and which will vote for a Republican. (in the United States) a state where the number of Democratic and Republican voters is about the…. What Are Swing States? The term swing state refers to any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate – they could … So a state like New Hampshire, with its four electoral votes, was critical in a tightly projected race like the 2012 contest was expected to be. But if you see something that doesn't look right, click here to contact us! Nearly … The number of swing voters declines when an incumbent president is seeking a second term. Forty-eight out of 50 states have a “winner take all” system, meaning that whoever gains the popular vote wins all of that state’s electoral college votes. WATCH: America 101: What is a Swing State? Some of the correlations are hard to untangle. Some examples of swing states of this election are Florida, Iowa, Colorado, and others. Swing state dominance, coupled with the control of safer states, put the electoral odds in Biden’s favour. These states are usually targeted by both major-party campaigns, especially in competitive elections. Non-Swing States. A dozen swing states. The state of Colorado is classified as one of the mountain states; this is mainly because the state encompasses the majority of the southern Rocky Mountains. Electoral College votes: 29; … Swing states are those in which neither major political party holds a lock on the outcome of presidential elections. SWING states can make or break US elections, and 13 of them will be the key to victory for either Joe Biden or Donald Trump in the 2020 race for president. Electoral College votes: 29; … These swing states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. It voted for the Republican nominee in 10 of the last 11 elections, with Jimmy Carter in 1976 being the last Democrat to win the state. All the Women Who Have Run for President of the US, How Political Party Convention Delegates are Chosen, What Happens If the Presidential Election Is a Tie, voters registered Republican and Democratic. Swing states are important for their Electoral College votes. The name of this state was derived from the Colorado River which was named by the Spanish travelers as Rio Colorado. Candidates almost exclusively visit swing states on the campaign trail, often skipping other states entirely unless they’re fundraising. The Constitution grants each state a number of electors based on the combined total of the state’s delegates in the Senate and House of Representatives. This is called the electoral college. Utah, Alaska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Kansas, Idaho, South Dakota, North Dakota and Nebraska are all states where the Republican presidential candidate has won by a huge margin for the past 10 presidential elections. The most popular use of swing state is to describe one in which the popular vote margin in a presidential race is relatively narrow and fluid, meaning that either a Republican or Democrat could win the state's electoral votes in any given election cycle. The term can also be used to describe a state whose electoral votes have a high probability of being the deciding factor in a presidential election. By 2004, battleground state overtook swing state … States that shift back and forth between candidates of both major political parties in presidential elections could be evenly divided between voters registered Republican and Democratic. The opposite of a swing state is a “safe state,” in which one candidate has a demonstrably clear majority, ensuring that the state will go to him or her. A dozen swing states. Population Changes. For example, California generally votes Democrat, and Texas is generally Republican. Nevada and Iowa were also important states in 2012, where President Obama gained enough small Swing State votes to lessen the importance of bigger swing states like Florida and Ohio. Traditional battleground states include Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. In Georgia, President Trump continued to make baseless claims about a "rigged" election, drawing false comparisons between President-elect Joe Biden's performance in swing states … Both of the two major U.S. political parties held their Presidential nomination conventions in swing states in 2016. Even more important, though, are the swing states. 17 States Join Texas In General Election Supreme Court Lawsuit Against 4 Swing States December 9, 2020, 2:48 PM Seventeen states have now joined a Texas lawsuit filed by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton against the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia. Within each of these swing states, the roadmap ahead for President Donald Trump and Joe Biden is … The reason is simple: 33 states have voted for the same party in the past 5 presidential elections, and 40 of the 50 states have voted for the same party since 2000. The claim that “every vote counts” is especially true in swing states. Large states, which have an electorate split relatively evenly between Democrats and Republicans, are called a Swing state. The term can also be used to describe a state whose electoral votes have a high probability of being the deciding factor in a presidential election. States of the Race. What are the swing states in 2016? A dozen swing states. Swings states, which are also called battleground states, are in play in presidential elections where the popular vote is close so that the electoral college outcome is up for grabs. Minnesota, the least-polled swing state in the nation, is the election’s biggest question mark. A dozen swing states. Major swing states may become states that are "safe" Republican or Democrat states over time, while solid red and blue states may move into the … It’s Thursday and we still don’t know who the next president of the United States is going to be. Meanwhile, the states that regularly lean to a single party are known as safe states, as it is generally assumed that one candidate has a base of support from which they can draw a sufficient share of the electorate without Swing states aren't just those that are closely divided politically, but those whose citizens can be persuaded to change who they vote for. Florida. Hudak says that states including Maine and New Hampshire "have a lot of moderate, independent-minded voters...who drive that two-party competitiveness.". For example, in 2008, then-Senator Barack Obama defeated the late Senator John McCain in North Carolina to win the presidency. More than a dozen states are considered swing states, and most of them hold a large number of electoral votes and are considered major prizes in presidential elections. There are three main factors that can create swing states, and they often overlap and are all at play. 06/15/2016 05:37 AM EDT. Major swing states may become states that are "safe" Republican or Democrat states over time, while solid red and blue states may move into the swing state category. Since their alliances are largely seen as fixed, there’s not a lot of need to do heavy campaigning in those states. swing state définition, signification, ce qu'est swing state: 1. In the 2016 election, Donald J. Trump eked out an Electoral College victory by winning six out of 10 of the most competitive swing states. En savoir plus. Utah, Alaska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Kansas, Idaho, South Dakota, North Dakota and Nebraska are all states where the Republican presidential candidate has won by a huge margin for the past 10 presidential elections. SWING states can make or break US elections, and 13 of them will be the key to victory for either Joe Biden or Donald Trump in the 2020 race for president. Texas and Alabama, on the other hand, most often go to the Republican. Most states are not swing states and will not change hands at this election – but safe states alone are not enough to get either Mr Trump or Mr Biden to the White House. Here's what changed. Americans do not vote directly for their president in November, but rather choose members of the Electoral College who then meet in December and cast their votes based on how the majority of voters in their state voted the previous month. All Rights Reserved. There are 538 electoral college votes total, and presidential candidates need 270 electoral votes to win the White House. It’s happened five times, most recently in the 2016 election, when Hillary Rodham Clinton received 2.8 million popular votes than Electoral College winner Donald Trump, the largest disparity in history. The 8 states where 2020 will be won or lost: A POLITICO deep dive. President Harry Truman holds up a premature copy of the Chicago Daily Tribune declaring his defeat to Thomas Dewey in the presidential election, St Louis, Missouri, November 1948. It’s widely agreed that the key swing states are as follows; but there is some variation between commentators and pollsters. It is the states that do not consistently vote along party lines that determine whether a candidate will win or lose: Swing states. Mr. Trump won the perennial swing state in 2016 by just under 113,000 votes. Twice a week we compile our most fascinating features and deliver them straight to you. And such states have been in play since the election of the nation's second president. When citizens leave liberal-leaning coasts or major cities to settle in smaller cities or more rural areas, they can alter the balance between parties. Swing states are those in which neither major political party holds a lock on the outcome of presidential elections. Jessica Pearce Rotondi is the author of What We Inherit: A Secret War and a Family’s Search for Answers. - Georgia. Hudak credits the highly competitive 1800 presidential election between Aaron Burr and Thomas Jefferson as heightening political interest in winning over specific states. "Safe states," on the other hand, are those where a majority of voters are expected to vote either for the Democratic or Republican candidate, so those electoral votes are considered to be safely on the candidate of that party's tally. To determine which states are considered swing states, we must first look at the non-swing states. The Electoral College was created as a compromise. Swing states have populations that are finely politically divided between Democrat and Republican. For example, Nate Silver, a widely read political journalist writing on The New York Times blog FiveThirtyEight, defined the term swing state this way: Tom Murse is a former political reporter and current Managing Editor of daily paper "LNP," and weekly political paper "The Caucus," both published by LNP Media in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. Other experts would add New Hampshire, North Carolina and a handful of others to the list. The portion of the American electorate made up of swing voters ranges from about a quarter to a third between presidential elections, according to the Pew Research Center. North Carolina and Florida are the two swing states most likely to report prompt results on election night, and as such will give an early indication of how both Mr … The candidate who has won Florida has become president at every election since 1992. (in the United States) a state where the number of Democratic and Republican voters is about the…. They're called that because the vote there is not a given for Democrats or Republicans, each of which hold historical strongholds over other states and therefore expect to win their respective states in each election. According to the 2016 presidential elections, 48.2% of the citize… Most states nearly always vote … Even more important, though, are the swing states. But what are the keys to winning each state? These few are called “swing states” and account for more than half of the total number of EC votes needed to win and where both candidates spend most effort in campaigning. “Before the 1990s, there was a good number of liberal Republicans in the North and conservative Democrats in the South," says Hudak. It didn’t pick up steam until the hotly contested 2000 election, when journalists covered battleground states like Florida with increasing fervor. The trends in 2020’s key swing states There are six states that will be key to winning the 2020 presidential election if it is at all close. “After 1800, states began to take a firm approach to making sure that their numbers were both collected and reported. Even more important, though, are the swing states. The outcome of the entire US election has come down to six undecided states… But four years later, President Obama lost the state to Mitt Romney. In American politics, the term swing state refers to any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate by a swing in votes. “In 1860 it’s the slavery issue that creates swing states like Ohio,” says Schulz. 1. Presidential campaigns focus on these states since the election is decided by electoral votes chosen by the popular vote of each state and not by a direct national popular vote. How Many Electoral Votes Does a Candidate Need to Win? These states are usually targeted by both major-party campaigns, especially in competitive elections. What Are Swing States? While most states consistently vote along party lines—from 2000 to 2016, 38 states voted for the same political party—the few who don’t receive an outsized amount of attention from candidates and pollsters. The Cook Political Report sees Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as toss-ups. “Swing states are the presidential campaign,” says Hudak. The claim that “every vote counts” is especially true in swing states. To determine which states are considered swing states, we must first look at the non-swing states. The outcome of voting in these states is difficult to predict.Swing states are also called battleground states or purple states. Some wanted Congress to select the nation’s leader, while others wanted to citizens to vote directly. Presidents can win the popular vote and lose the electoral college vote. Each term describes a state that is closely divided between Democratic and Republican voters and could go either way in an election, but each points up different aspects of a political contest. "As parties divide, they can change whether a state is a swing state or not. It’s widely agreed that the key swing states are as follows; but there is some variation between commentators and pollsters. Nearly 100million Americans voted ahead o… Urban areas tend to vote Democratic and rural areas tend to lean Republican. US election swing states: The key swing states to watch on election night. Or they could have large numbers of swing voters, those who tend to vote for individual candidates and not the party and have no loyalty to a party. As time went on, politicians got to know what state constituencies looked like, and that competitiveness grew as well,” says Hudak. Here’s the history of swing states and the powerful influence they’ve had on elections in America. In the 1960 presidential election between Richard M. Nixon and John F. Kennedy, 10 states were won by less than two percent of the vote. One of the most important swing states and with the third highest number of Electoral College votes, Florida is key for the candidates to win in the race to the White House. What is a swing state? Even more important, though, are the swing states. California and New York’s electoral votes can nearly always be counted on to go to the Democratic candidate. swing state meaning: 1. Traditional battleground states include Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Whoever wins most of them will in all likelihood win the presidency. These are called “swing states” or “battleground states”. These 6 swing states are pivotal in the White House race. (in the United States) a state where the number of Democratic and Republican voters is about the…. Southern states vote for the democratic candidate. Each is a shorthand for the building blocks of victory in the swing states that will determine the presidential election. Texas and Alabama, on the other hand, most often go to the Republican. It’s states like Ohio that tipped the balance,” he says. While the concept is nearly as old as the Electoral College, the term “swing state” is a relatively modern creation, first used by the New York Times in 1936 while Franklin D. Roosevelt was campaigning in the West. He explains that the Republican Party had been founded only a few years earlier in Wisconsin, and it was taking off in the Midwest. A swing state is an American state in which both candidates in a Presidential election have a reasonable chance of winning, because support is almost evenly divided.
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